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ACUS11 KWNS 222339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222339
FLZ000-GAZ000-230045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Areas affected...Southern Georgia into North Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

Valid 222339Z - 230045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible for the next
hour or two, but the overall severe threat will continue to decrease
through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Occasional strong to severe storms have remained on the
western edge of the greater thunderstorm activity. Storms in this
area have access to better instability as an unseasonably strong low
level jet continues to feed moisture into these storms. However,
earlier thunderstorm activity has eliminated most of the
surface-based instability across much of the land area. Without
access to this low-level buoyancy, expect storms to continue to
weaken through the evening. A marginal severe risk may remain in
southern Georgia where some low-level instability remains which
could extend beyond 00Z. Therefore, outside of this area, most of
severe thunderstorm watch 303 can likely be allowed to expire at
00Z. The best opportunity for occasional strong to severe storms
will be south of the current watch near Tampa Bay where surface
temperatures remain in the upper 80s and MLCAPE values are around
3000 J/kg. However, shear is weaker in this area which may limit the
severity of any new development. In addition, loss of daytime
heating and an outflow boundary moving southwest will stabilize the
lower levels and end any marginal severe threat by later this
evening.

..Bentley.. 07/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 31298397 31208319 30758261 30398233 29598174 28748129
27608193 27498268 28028286 29048316 29908380 30458414
31298397



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