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ACUS11 KWNS 200103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200102
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Much of Arkansas into far northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...

Valid 200102Z - 200300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds are expected across northern Arkansas this
evening, and may spread southeastward toward the Mississippi river, necessitating the need for an additional watch.

DISCUSSION...A relatively short line of storms associated with a
long-lived MCS continued to develop across the MO/AR border.
Although outflow has been surging well ahead of the line, new
updrafts continue to re-form. The 00Z LZK sounding shows a very
moist and unstable air mass ahead of these storms, with MLCAPE in
excess of 4000 J/kg and very little convective inhibition. Thus,
given northwest flow aloft, some semblance of an MCS is expected to
persist with a threat of damaging winds. If the system can grow
upscale, then additional area may require a severe thunderstorm
watch.

..Jewell.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 34579390 35929361 36089318 36359268 36629236 36779207
36759170 36419073 35589009 35019001 34369026 33989079
33819143 33759203 33939320 34579390



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