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ACUS11 KWNS 221858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221858
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...Florida Panhandle...Southwestern
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221858Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado/wind damage threat is expected across
parts of southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and far
southwestern Georgia this afternoon. The threats are not currently
expected to be great enough to warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1010 mb low across
southern Mississippi with backed southeast flow across much of
southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Surface dewpoints in these areas are in the mid to upper 60s F and
the RAP is estimating SBCAPE values in the 750 to 1500 J/kg range.
In addition, the Fort Rucker, Alabama WSR-88D VWP shows a curved
hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. This
suggests that the stronger discrete cells will rotate and could have
a marginal tornado and/or wind damage threat. In spite of this, a
large area of cloudiness and rainfall is present from the Florida
Panhandle northward across much of Alabama. This should limit any
further destabilization and should keep any severe threat marginal
this afternoon. Nevertheless, we will continue to closely monitor
the situation.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 29848425 29498459 29538514 29888560 30238632 30308699
30188753 30118796 30408811 31018807 31658731 32128623
32038507 31398431 30608410 29848425



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ACUS11 KWNS 072237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072236
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far east Mississippi...northern
Alabama...far northwest Georgia...far southeast Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072236Z - 080030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Discrete storms may continue for a few more hours, posing
mainly a severe hail risk, though a few damaging wind gusts can not
be ruled out. A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Relatively discrete convection, occasionally exhibiting
brief, transient supercell structures, continue to initiate/sustain
themselves along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone extending from
central Mississippi, to far southeast Tennessee. Instability is
gradually waning across the warm sector, with MLCAPE decreasing to
1000-1500 J/kg in the last few hours. Nonetheless, relatively steep
low-level lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE exceeding 100 J/kg have
supported vigorous updraft development despite a weak shear
environment being in place, with 1.5 inch diameter hail reported in
Fayette County, AL an hour ago.

Before the onset of nocturnal stabilization, a few more instances of
severe hail are possible, with a severe gust or two possible with
the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. Given the sparse nature of the
severe hail/wind threat, no WW issuances are expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33238920 34308789 35248582 35528431 35178409 33708536
33108669 32918808 33238920



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