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ACUS11 KWNS 161921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161920
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK...southwestern MO...and northern/central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161920Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a very isolated threat
for strong to damaging winds through the remainder of the afternoon.
Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A pair of MCVs are present across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK this afternoon per recent visible satellite and
radar imagery. An outflow boundary associated with prior convection
from one of these circulations is encouraging renewed thunderstorms
across far northeastern OK and vicinity as of 1920Z. Although winds
through the troposphere will remain weak based on RAP mesoanalysis
and VWPs from area radars, a hot/unstable airmass characterized by
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will support strong updraft growth in the
initial thunderstorm stage. Water-loaded downdrafts may pose a
strong to damaging wind threat, and a storm just northwest of Little
Rock, AR showed a brief but clear downburst signature with around 50
kt inbound velocities less than 500 ft AGL from 1900-1910Z. Any
thunderstorm in this environment should be capable of producing
similar strong to severe downburst winds. There may be some
potential for storms to congeal into one or more very loosely
organized clusters along the outflow boundary across far
northeastern OK into southwestern MO and northwestern AR over the
next few hours. If this were to occur, then perhaps a slightly
greater wind threat may be realized. Regardless, the lack of
meaningful shear will very likely keep the severe threat too
isolated to justify a watch.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 07/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36689219 36079170 35089175 34489226 34479320 34879478
35109531 35729534 36289523 36749488 37349411 37379368
37269299 36689219



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