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ACUS11 KWNS 202241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202240
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Southeast IN...southwest OH...and adjacent part of north-northeast KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202240Z - 210115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible into
the early evening across southwest Ohio, and perhaps reaching
adjacent counties in northeast Kentucky. Locally strong, damaging
winds will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar trends showed a small cluster of storms
extending from southwest OH into far southeast IN, with this
activity tracking to the southeast within a corridor of moderate
instability (surface-based CAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) that extended into
northeast KY. Vertically veering winds with westerly midlevel winds
of 40-45 kt per ILN VWP is resulting in sufficient shear for storm
organization within a moist and unstable environment. Although
midlevel lapse rates are weak, limiting the severe hail threat,
steep surface to 3 km lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km suggest locally
strong, damaging winds will remain possible. This severe-weather
threat is expected to diminish between 8-10 PM EDT, as the loss of
daytime heating stabilizes the boundary layer. The short duration
of this severe threat precludes the need for a severe-thunderstorm
watch.

..Peters/Hart.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 39728458 39578353 39158284 38928255 38488254 38118295
38298393 38528468 38808514 39318504 39728458



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ACUS11 KWNS 301642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301641
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-301845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far North Texas...Far Northwest
Arkansas...Far Southeast Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301641Z - 301845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across the region
over the next few hours. A tornado threat, along with wind damage
and large hail will be possible as cells intensify. A tornado watch
will likely be needed relatively soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front
from north-central Oklahoma extending southwestward into northwest
Texas. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to a moderately
unstable airmass. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across the
warm sector in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the instability
gradient, a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is
developing in north-central to northeastern Oklahoma. This activity
is expected to continue to move northeastward across northeast
Oklahoma. The Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 35 kt with 0-3
km storm relative helicity near 270 m2/s2. This shear environment
will support supercell development associated with a tornado threat.
The tornado threat will be greatest with cells that track
northeastward along the front. Large hail and wind damage will also
be possible with this activity.

Further to the south across southern Oklahoma, convection is
beginning to initiate in the vicinity of Ardmore. Some uncertainty
exists concerning how fast this activity will ramp up this
afternoon. For this reason, a tornado watch will likely be needed
over the next hour. The current thinking is that cells will
gradually increase in coverage and intensity with a severe threat
developing by 18Z in south-central and east-central Oklahoma. The
deep-layer shear environment will favor supercell development. In
addition, RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear
this afternoon across east-central Oklahoma, which will become more
favorable for tornadoes. Large hail and wind damage will also be
possible with supercells that develop.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34069641 33739740 33829807 34229869 35299872 35849811
36799653 36959616 37139511 36889458 36049445 35489455
34749535 34069641



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