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ACUS11 KWNS 241757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241757
TXZ000-OKZ000-241930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241757Z - 241930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some potential exists for an ongoing thunderstorm complex
to intensify and build farther southeast across Oklahoma, with an
attendant threat of damaging winds and isolated hail. Watch issuance
could be needed.

DISCUSSION...A convective system is building southeast across
Oklahoma early this afternoon, and a growing potential for damaging
winds and isolated large hail may exist. CAM/hi-res guidance
continues to handle this scenario poorly, with a general inability
to maintain robust convection along the mature cold pool across
western Oklahoma. Conversely, visible imagery and KFDR ZDR data
highlight continued vigorous updraft accelerations along the
southwestern flank of this complex. Therefore, it appears
convergence along the cold pool remains sufficient to force parcels
through dry air/inhibition around 700-850mb (sampled by a 17Z OUN
sounding) and achieve sustained vertical accelerations within an EML
plume around 700-500mb.

Persistent heating ahead of this boundary, combined with new
initiation near an intersection with a residual outflow over
southern OK, may gradually increase a threat of damaging winds and
hail from northwest Texas into southern/central Oklahoma.
Organizational trends with this convective cluster could require
watch issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33809970 33959982 34389997 34749978 35019947 35449855
35749776 35589737 35449698 35349690 34239655 33809676
33699785 33809970



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