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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0483

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 21, 2018 20:29:53
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212029
    NMZ000-212230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0483
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

    Areas affected...portions of Northern and Central New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...

    Valid 212029Z - 212230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for marginally severe wind and hail continues
    across WW 112

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 2030Z shows a large area
    of anvil clouds overspreading WW 112. This has stunted surface
    heating and generally limited further destabilization within the
    area. However, mid- and upper-level winds have been modestly
    increasing, per KABX and KHDX VAD profiles, as the the upper-level
    trough pushes slowly eastward. Effective bulk shear remains 25-30
    kts and will support enough storm organization for isolated,
    marginally severe hail and wind gusts.

    ..Wendt/Elliott.. 05/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 36310742 36610707 36690600 35910542 34150511 33360549
    33260660 33720705 35040725 36310742



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 30, 2019 20:26:51
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302026
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-302230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0483
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

    Areas affected...Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest
    Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

    Valid 302026Z - 302230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to continue across WW 111
    through late this afternoon. Tornadoes, large hail and wind damage
    will be possible over the next couple of hours. A potential for
    strong tornadoes will also exist.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front
    across north-central Oklahoma. Tornadic supercells are ongoing to
    the southeast of the boundary from just north of Tulsa to southeast
    of Tulsa. Surface dewpoints in the Tulsa area are in the upper 60s
    and lower 70s F, contributing to moderate instability with MLCAPE
    values of 2000-2500 J/kg. In addition, the Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows a
    looped hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 300 m2/s2.
    This will continue to be favorable for tornadoes with the more
    dominant supercells. Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen even
    more over the next few hours, suggesting a potential for strong
    tornadoes will exist. The low-level shear also appears favorable for
    tornadoes across a large area including southwest Missouri and
    northwest Arkansas. The amount of instability and deep-layer shear
    will also be favorable for large hail and wind damage with
    supercells and the more organized multicells.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 35329513 35329574 36429569 36899544 37179504 37279453
    37249377 36879361 36569366 36119399 35329513



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