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ACUS11 KWNS 250834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250834
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-251000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...much of Oklahoma...far southeast Kansas...and far southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215...216...217...

Valid 250834Z - 251000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215, 216,
217 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to move across the region with a
history of wind gusts between 60-70 mph. The threat will continue
for at least another few hours.

DISCUSSION...Well organized mesoscale convective system (MCS)
continues to move across much of the southern Plains this morning.
Numerous measured severe reports have occurred along and behind the
gust front/outflow boundary. The airmass ahead of the MCS continues
to recover as mechanical mixing beneath a strong low-level jet
(sampled at around 50-60 knots per KTLX VAD) erodes the residual
stable layer from widespread thunderstorms during Sunday (6/24).
Given effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots and
most-unstable CAPE between around 1000 J/kg, the expectation is that
the MCS will continue to be capable of producing severe thunderstorm
wind gusts for at least another few hours. With time the MCS is
expected to weaken, especially across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri where theta-e has not fully recovered. However, the degree
of organization of the MCS may compensate for the poorer airmass,
especially in the near term. As such, uncertainty remains regarding
the need of a new watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217,
and trends will be monitored.

..Marsh.. 06/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 33919971 34689880 35679747 36829665 37769641 37159381
34149637 33919971



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