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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0432

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 15, 2018 21:43:57
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152143
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152143
    DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-152315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0432
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0443 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

    Areas affected...Northern VA...MD...DC...DE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 152143Z - 152315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected into
    early evening, with some threat of damaging wind and perhaps
    marginally severe hail. WW issuance may be needed within the hour.

    DISCUSSION...At 2130Z, thunderstorms were gradually increasing
    across the Blue Ridge, while the southern part of the severe QLCS
    over the Northeast was gradually approaching northern MD. While
    midlevel flow and effective shear is weaker across this region
    compared to areas further north, strong instability (SBCAPE of
    2500-3500 J/kg) will support some threat of hail and damaging wind
    with any storms that develop in or move into the area. Watch
    issuance is possible within the hour to cover this threat.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38447916 38767861 39167782 39677680 39607630 39447574
    38967539 38467544 38047619 37817739 37757846 38077929
    38297930 38447916



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 15:12:07
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241512
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241511
    TXZ000-241715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0432
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1011 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

    Areas affected...central into southeastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 241511Z - 241715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A WW issuance may be needed in portions of the discussion
    area - most likely from 16Z onward.

    DISCUSSION...Mostly sub-severe convection continues currently amidst
    a complicated surface pattern, with a remnant outflow extending from
    near CLL to 40 S SAT to near DRT. Surface-based convection persists
    near the outflow, with one dominant cell over western Gonzales
    county exhibiting signs of mid-level rotation. Though low-level
    wind fields remain weak, any favorable interaction between updrafts
    associated with this convection along the remnant outflow may result
    in a brief tornado.

    Over time, strengthening low-level wind fields associated with
    low-level cyclogenesis and approach of a mid-level wave centered
    over northern Mexico will probably result in 1) stalling and/or slow
    northward retreat of the outflow and 2) gradually increased
    organization of convection. Any storms near/south of this outflow
    will be surface-based owing to near 70F dewpoints, while steepening
    mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy and result in an
    increased threat for all modes of severe. North of the boundary, a
    gradually organizing linear complex near SJT and other scattered
    convection near HDO/SAT/AUS may pose a threat for marginally severe
    hail and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust. Convective trends
    continue to be monitored, and a WW issuance may be needed at some
    point after 16Z or so.

    ..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31460105 31520008 31419820 31049668 30489576 29839546
    28879575 28309648 27949798 27949940 28350026 29170094
    29720142 30350162 31040137 31190130 31460105



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