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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0573

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 30, 2018 02:11:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 300211
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300210
    OKZ000-300415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0573
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

    Areas affected...South Central Kansas...Northwest and Central
    Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 300210Z - 300415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms within WW 131 have shown some signs of upscale
    growth over the last hour. Severe wind gusts and isolated still
    remain possible with ongoing storms. Downstream severe thunderstorm
    watch issuance is possible should convective trends warrant.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in northwest and west-central Oklahoma
    have remained semi-discrete; however, signs of upscale growth are
    appearing on radar with several new cells developing in northwest
    Oklahoma atop the outflow from earlier convection. Effective shear
    values from RAP analysis, supported by KTLX and KFDR VAD profiles,
    remain high at 30-55 kts. Some elevated instability still remains
    per OUN and LMN 00Z soundings with MUCAPE at 1500-2000 J/kg. Latest
    CAM guidance still suggests that continued upscale growth should
    occur over the next hour or two with primary threats being severe
    wind gusts and isolated hail. Still, uncertainty exists with exact
    evolution and coverage of storms through the evening. A downstream
    severe thunderstorm is possible by 0230Z should upscale growth
    trends become clear.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36899850 36949781 36769685 36259667 35749680 35249693
    34789729 34729771 34719856 34759925 35129982 35809954
    36379905 36899850



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