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ACUS11 KWNS 261854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261853
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-262000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...Southern Illinois and Southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 261853Z - 262000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely as strong to severe
storms form this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have formed in east central Missouri along a
remnant outflow boundary from the morning convection. These storms
will continue to move east with additional storms possible further
east along the slowing outflow boundary. Given MUCAPE of 2000 to
3000 J/kg south of this boundary and effective shear of 40 to 45
knots, supercells and linear bowing segments are likely with
damaging winds and large hail as the primary threat. The upstream
storms in central Missouri will likely move into this same outflow
corridor this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38209163 38239070 38219006 38208917 38108875 37678852
36998892 36638914 36558976 36609058 36779131 37029169
38209163



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