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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0790

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 19, 2018 17:38:37
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 191738
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191737
    OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-191930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0790
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

    Areas affected...northeast Missouri through central
    Illinois...Indiana and southern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 191737Z - 191930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose some risk for locally strong wind
    gusts this afternoon over the Ohio Valley, but threat appears too
    marginal for a severe thunderstorm watch at this time. However, will
    continue to monitor this region.

    DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from southern OH
    through north central IL and into southeast IA where it intersects
    an outflow boundary that extends southwest into northern MO. The
    atmosphere has become moderately unstable supported by diabatic
    warming of the moist boundary layer with MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg,
    but with weak (5.5-6 C/km) 700-500 lapse rates. Numerous storms have
    developed in the weakly capped warm sector, but weak winds aloft
    (generally at or below 20 kt below 500 mb) and weak vertical shear
    are supporting pulse and multicell storm modes. Storms will continue
    developing in vicinity of the front over the OH Valley as well as
    along the expansive outflow boundary across northern MO. Given the
    steepening low-level lapse rates, a few wet microbursts remain
    possible, but the weak kinematic environment suggests storms should
    remain poorly organized, limiting overall severe threat.

    ..Dial/Weiss.. 06/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 41138749 40508529 39868310 39108374 39988831 39639015
    39079179 39079297 39709278 40529173 41369053 41138749



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