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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0789

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 19, 2018 16:04:37
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 191604
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191604
    DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-191800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0789
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1104 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

    Areas affected...northeast West Virginia...northern
    Virginia...northern Maryland and Delaware

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 191604Z - 191800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage into the
    afternoon over the Middle Atlantic region, and some storms may
    become capable of producing a few instances of locally strong to
    damaging wind gusts. At this time it appears the coverage of severe
    events may not be sufficient to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch
    issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Late this morning a cold front extends from central NJ
    through extreme southern PA and is moving slowly south. The
    pre-frontal warm sector has become moderately unstable with
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, but 12Z RAOB data from Sterling indicate a
    subsidence inversion with temperatures around -4C at 500 mb
    resulting in very weak (5 C/km) 700-500 mb lapse rates. However,
    strong diabatic warming is occurring and surface temperatures are
    warming into the low 90s F resulting in steep low-level lapse rates.
    Convection including a few storms have been on the increase along
    the front and over the higher terrain from northeast WV through
    southern PA, and this trend should continue given the weak cap and destabilizing boundary layer. VWP data show weak vertical shear, but
    30 kt west northwesterly winds at and above 2 km, which combined
    with favorable low-level thermodynamic environment, may augment the
    potential for a few strong convective gusts through downward
    momentum transfer.

    ..Dial/Weiss.. 06/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 39557909 39727754 39567612 39157551 38547567 38367764
    38717934 39557909



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