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ACUS11 KWNS 231900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231900
SDZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...portions of northeast
Colorado...extreme western Nebraska and South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231900Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind will exist this
afternoon. A WW will be possible in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...At 1845Z visible satellite imagery showed towering
cumulus forming over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming southward
into northeast Colorado. Ahead of this development, low- to mid-50s
dewpoints were generally in place along with strong surface heating
taking place. With time, continued destabilization will take place
leading to SBCAPE values at or above 2000 J/kg. With steep mid-level
lapse rates in place in conjunction with 30-40 kts of effective
deep-layer shear, per RAP analysis, robust updrafts will be possible
posing a severe hail and wind risk. With time, storms are expected
to grow upscale into a line where a severe wind threat will be the
primary concern. A WW issuance in the next hour or two is possible.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 44090588 44790570 45090554 45180487 45160418 44960405
44330355 42950347 41810339 40810338 39720364 39610414
39760481 40090526 41090548 43070569 44090588



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ACUS11 KWNS 021622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021622
TXZ000-021845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021622Z - 021845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop by early afternoon
across parts of west Texas. Large hail and isolated wind damage will
be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance may be needed over
the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
southward across west Texas extending eastward into the northern
Texas Hill Country. A dryline is located across the Pecos Valley.
South of the front and to the east of the dryline, a moist airmass
is in place with dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s F. This
is contributing to moderate instability with the RAP estimating
MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg. For much of the morning, the
airmass has been capped. However, the RAP is suggesting that the cap
has weakened across west Texas over the last hour where the RAP is
analyzing strong low-level convergence. There is very little
large-scale ascent across west Texas which introduces uncertainty
concerning how long it will take for convective initiation to take
place. The current thinking is that a few storms will develop by
1800Z. In addition to the moderate instability and steep mid-level
lapse rates, the San Angelo WSR-88D VWP has 40 kt of 0-6 km shear
suggesting supercells with large hail will be possible. A few
damaging wind gusts may also occur especially as low-level lapse
rates steepen during the early to mid afternoon.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30670273 30050306 29650287 29460253 29420203 29470170
29810136 31070059 32000070 32260142 32270194 31860247
30670273



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