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ACUS11 KWNS 231823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231823
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-231930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Western Texas
Panhandle...Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231823Z - 231930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe hail and wind threat will exist this afternoon. A
WW is not expected at this time, however convective trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus development
along the the higher terrain of New Mexico southward into southwest
Texas. Dewpoints of mid 50s to low 60s are generally in place across
the discussion area with strong heating occurring, particularly in
southwest Texas. Continued heating and destabilization is expected
over the next few hours which will lead to MLCAPE values from 1500
J/kg to 2500 J/kg. While buoyancy will be plentiful, shear will be
the limiting factor on storm severity -- RAP analysis shows only
20-30 kts of deep-layer shear across the area. Nevertheless, a
severe hail and wind threat will exist through the afternoon with
the strongest storms. With time, storms should congeal and form a
loosely organized line that will propagate eastward across the Texas
panhandle, potentially posing a wind threat. A WW is not expected do
to lack of better deep-layer shear for organization, however
convective trends will be monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 36950452 36850375 36820321 36260246 34830190 33110200
32030242 31210309 30950341 30750407 31200461 32020497
32910538 34020567 34990587 35750586 36160566 36320539
36950452



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ACUS11 KWNS 020437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020437
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019

Areas affected...much of north Texas into Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...119...

Valid 020437Z - 020630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118, 119
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for localized damaging wind gusts or hail
persists across a large area tonight.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving MCS now stretches from western AR across
northeast TX, and draped westward across north TX. This system
continues to process a lot of air with an expansive cloud shield
noted on IR. A moist,unstable air mass will maintain this system for
several hours with increased southerly sfc to 850 mb flow of 30-40
kt.

Given the primarily east-west orientation of the line beneath modest
westerlies aloft, little movement has occurred. Eastern portions of
the line have surged the most, with more of a northeast-southwest
orientation across AR/ArkLaTex suggesting a better chance of
damaging winds.

To the west, more of an anafrontal regime is noted, with new
convective elements forming and shifting north as the outflow sinks
south. Meanwhile, the western end of the line across northwest TX
has maintained the most vigorous convection with large hail
persisting in cells.

With a largely uncapped air mass ahead of this MCS, there is little
reason to forecast much change over the next several hours, except
for a slow, south to southeast progression spatially.

..Jewell.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 32820021 32809910 32829833 32839718 32869638 32929572
33199517 33639470 34269422 34939388 35109296 34749251
33959266 32999285 32279315 31729401 31469521 31359662
31449790 31699900 32099964 32320002 32590023 32820021



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