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ACUS11 KWNS 040239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040238
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-040445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...Western South Dakota...Far Northeast Wyoming...and
Far Southeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

Valid 040238Z - 040445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms continue across portions of Watch #259. Severe
wind/hail potential remain.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is moving northeast near the Montana,
South Dakota, and North Dakota borders and a few cells are moving
into southwest portions of Watch #259 including one severe warned
storm. These storms are mostly sub-severe, but the environment
(MLCAPE of 1500-3500 J/kg; effective bulk shear of 30-50 knots per mesoanalysis) remains conducive for severe hail/wind potential.
Convective development is likely to increase and organize into a
QLCS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. LNX and GLD VAD
data show the low-level jet already strengthening to 30-35 knots.
This development would increase the potential for severe wind as the
line organizes and cold pools are consolidated.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45920497 45950310 45940164 42990143 43000465 45920497



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