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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0578

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 30, 2018 22:24:06
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 302224
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302223
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-310100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0578
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 302223Z - 310100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible for a couple
    more hours across parts of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.
    Hail and strong wind gusts may occur but any severe threat is
    expected to remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low in
    southeast Colorado with upslope east-southeasterly flow across most
    of northeast Colorado. Thunderstorms are ongoing from near Limon, CO northeastward to Holyoke, CO. To the east of these storms, surface
    dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F and the RAP has about 1000
    J/kg of MLCAPE. In addition, the Goodland WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km
    shear of 25 kt suggesting deep-layer shear is strong enough for a
    marginal severe threat. As the storms move eastward into an
    instability max near the CO-KS state line early this evening, hail
    and a few marginally severe wind gusts could accompany the stronger
    multicells. As instability decreases, the threat is expected to
    diminish during the 00Z to 01Z timeframe.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38749913 38250097 38070255 38470339 39270357 39790275
    40060115 39649918 38749913



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