This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1527709753-1857-6682
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 301949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301948
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-302145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Idaho...southwestern Montana and
adjacent northwest Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301948Z - 302145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms, perhaps an isolated
supercell or two, appear increasingly possible through 5-6 PM MDT.
Severe weather potential is expected to remain marginal/isolated
enough that a watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale mid/upper support for convective
development remains unclear. However, thunderstorm activity is in
the process of increasing in response to sufficient diurnal boundary
layer destabilization and orographic forcing across the Bitterroot
Mountains vicinity, and along the higher terrain east through south
of the upper Snake Valley. CAPE appears generally weak, which may
remain a limiting factor to a more substantive severe weather
threat, but lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are becoming at least
modestly steep. Although this is generally south of a belt of 50 kt southwesterly 500 mb crossing central Idaho and western Montana, in
the wake of a significant short wave trough shifting northeastward
through Alberta, vertical shear is probably favorable for convection
with some severe wind/hail in areas where instability becomes
locally maximized late this afternoon. An isolated supercell may
not be out of the question, with activity tending to develop
northeastward across the mountains of southwest Montana and
northeast Wyoming through late afternoon.

..Kerr/Weiss.. 05/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 43831261 44411289 44511366 44771421 45651394 46931185
47001040 45720909 44921057 43591020 42501162 41651315
42071401 42961334 43831261



------------=_1527709753-1857-6682
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1527709753-1857-6682--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)