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ACUS11 KWNS 202342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202341
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-210045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Areas affected...Northeast LA...Southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202341Z - 210045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two is possible over the next hour or
so across northeast LA and southwest AR.

DISCUSSION...Despite calm surface winds, high theta-e airmass
(characterized by temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the
mid 70s) is contributing to strong low-level CAPE (i.e. 0-3 km
MLCAPE over 75 J per kg based on the latest mesoanalysis).
Additionally, a narrow corridor of relatively confluent, slightly
stronger low-level likely exist across northeast LA and southwest
AR. This slightly enhanced low-level flow is likely contributing to
a maximum in low-level shear and storm-relative helicity. Latest
mesoanalysis estimates 0-1 km bulk shear is near 25 kt and 0-1 km
SRH is over 150 m2/s2. This favorable low-level shear coupled with
the very moist, tropical airmass and strong low-level instability
may result in a brief tornado or two. Marginal and isolated nature
of the threat precludes the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32989406 33479295 33279247 32839255 32369342 32429426
32989406



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