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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0510

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 24, 2018 19:37:36
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241936
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0510
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

    Areas affected...From northeast Nebraska into southwest
    Minnesota...eastern South Dakota...southeast North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 241936Z - 242200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are expected later this
    afternoon, with a hail and wind threat.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues across most of the region
    ahead of a weak cold front across the central Dakotas. The strongest instability currently exists across central NE into eastern SD and
    southwest MN where dewpoints remain in the 60s F. Meanwhile, a band
    of weak storms currently extends from northeast NE into southeast
    SD, and looks to be evolving out of the preceding midlevel
    convection.

    Given continued heating and weak convergence with the front, widely
    scattered storms are expected to form. Shear profiles are marginal
    for any long-lived severe threat, but localized severe hail or wind
    are possible with mixed-mode convection. In addition, the ongoing
    activity across NE/SD may evolve into stronger cells, affecting
    parts of southeast SD, northwest IA, and southwest MN later today.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42729968 45329948 46259974 46849988 47269895 47239819
    46919769 46169722 45579718 45089720 44749695 44489662
    44269599 44179559 43919544 43609535 43249611 43099655
    42589855 42399946 42729968



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 03, 2019 03:27:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 030327
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030326
    TXZ000-030530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0510
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1026 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

    Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley in Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

    Valid 030326Z - 030530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat of large hail persists within the watch area,
    mainly along the Rio Grande.

    DISCUSSION...Easterly surface winds continue across the region, on
    the southern periphery of the outflow covering much of central TX.
    The 00Z DRT sounding shows 2km deep of easterly winds, with
    substantial instability. Midlevel winds are weak, but good upper
    flow exists. The overall effect is for a modestly long hodograph due
    to the 180 degree directional change with height.

    The cell approaching Del Rio likely contains large, damaging hail,
    and may produce severe winds as well. Another isolated cell was
    located near the eastern edge of the watch in Dimmit county, but
    latest trends suggest a shrinking updraft.

    With time, the loss of heating and a gradually cooling boundary
    layer may thin out storm coverage a bit, but at least isolated cells
    capable of hail may persist for a few hours.

    ..Jewell.. 05/03/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...

    LAT...LON 28950286 29010333 29320367 29760364 30190334 30340296
    30320215 30220154 30160130 29550016 29009942 28529909
    27899917 27499939 27499958 27699986 28100017 28410040
    29020075 29430123 29680159 29720218 29690250 29480268
    29140287 28950286



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