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ACUS11 KWNS 171530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171530
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Easter Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into far
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171530Z - 171800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce hail through midday, but a watch
unlikely for this activity. A greater threat of severe storms is
anticipated later today.

DISCUSSION...Storms currently exist along a line from just east of
LBL to near HHF, and are roughly oriented along a zone of 700 mb
warm advection. As such, the inflow into these storms is likely
elevated above the moist boundary layer, but very steep lapse rates
aloft are maximizing updraft strength. Further, northwesterly flow
aloft is providing shear in the cloud-bearing layer and favoring
sustained storms. Visible imagery does show additional lift/elevated
CU into southwest OK, suggesting a possible southward extension of
this storm complex should they persist.

..Jewell.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36300055 37680111 38250051 38199972 36979897 36259866
35669875 35179905 35149967 35650009 36300055



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ACUS11 KWNS 171532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171532 COR
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into far
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171532Z - 171800Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce hail through midday, but a watch
unlikely for this activity. A greater threat of severe storms is
anticipated later today.

DISCUSSION...Storms currently exist along a line from just east of
LBL to near HHF, and are roughly oriented along a zone of 700 mb
warm advection. As such, the inflow into these storms is likely
elevated above the moist boundary layer, but very steep lapse rates
aloft are maximizing updraft strength. Further, northwesterly flow
aloft is providing shear in the cloud-bearing layer and favoring
sustained storms. Visible imagery does show additional lift/elevated
CU into southwest OK, suggesting a possible southward extension of
this storm complex should they persist.

..Jewell.. 05/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36300055 37680111 38250051 38199972 36979897 36259866
35669875 35179905 35149967 35650009 36300055



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ACUS11 KWNS 250420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250419
LAZ000-TXZ000-250545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...far eastern TX...western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250419Z - 250545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A limited/conditional risk for a damaging gust or two and
perhaps a tornado may accompany storms exhibiting some supercellular structure/mid-level rotation.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery around 1110pm CDT shows a couple of
storms during the past hour exhibiting characteristics of
rotation/organization within an adequately moist airmass with
surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s north to the upper 60s
south. KPOE VAD data shows strong speed shear in the low levels
(0-1 km shear 44kt) with an enlarged hodograph typical of a warm
advection profile/LLJ. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE seemingly exists
across the warm sector northeast of the storms over far eastern TX.
As such, a couple of damaging gusts (near severe thresholds) are
possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms
exhibiting strong/persistent low-level rotation given the otherwise
supportive tendencies (i.e., strong low-level shear) in the
mesoscale environment.

..Smith/Grams.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29999433 31369436 32119350 32019281 30359325 30119356
29999433



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