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ACUS11 KWNS 311805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311805
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-311930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...southern Indiana...northern Kentucky and southwest
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 311805Z - 311930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 136 and persist downstream toward parts of
northern KY and southwest OH. A downstream watch will be needed
soon.

DISCUSSION...The mature bow echo currently tracking east-northeast
at around 45 kt across southern IN and northern KY will move out of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 by around 19z. A severe threat is
expected to persist downstream into parts of northern KY and
southwest OH and a new watch may be needed downstream.

Moderate instability exists across parts of northern KY into
southwest OH downstream of the current watch. However, some
uncertainty exists, at least across northern KY, due to earlier
cluster of storms across the Bluegrass region. These storms have
resulted in a weak cold pool in the LEX to JKL vicinity and this may
inhibit severe potential across parts of the area. Furthermore, deep
layer shear is rather weak and lapse rates decrease with eastward
extent. However, rich moisture across the region and temperatures
warming into the mid to upper 80s will promote continued
destabilization ahead of the approaching bow echo. Some threat for
damaging wind and perhaps small hail likely will persist for several
hours and move out of WW 136 into southwest OH/northern KY and a
downstream watch will likely be needed soon.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 39438708 39928444 39948392 39928378 39748358 39378341
38998334 38708346 38358378 38068416 37958439 37768578
37498726 38088728 39438708



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