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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0670

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 08, 2018 17:51:49
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081751
    ILZ000-IAZ000-081945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0670
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

    Areas affected...southern and western Iowa and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 081751Z - 081945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk appears to be evolving across the
    southern and western Iowa vicinity. WW issuance appears unlikely at
    this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows an increase in
    cumulus development near a warm front lying west-northwest to
    east-southeast across Iowa, ahead of a northwest Iowa MCV. With a
    moist/warm boundary layer near and south of the front, mixed-layer
    CAPE has risen to near 2000 J/kg across the area -- which is
    supporting the convective increase including a storm now indicated
    by radar over far northeast Missouri.

    While mid-level flow remains relatively weak across the region,
    low-level veering with height -- particularly near and north of the
    front -- may allow a couple of organized/severe storms to eventually
    evolve. Along with local risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds, an
    isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well. However, unless
    upscale organization occurs -- possibly aided by the
    southeastward-moving MCV, risk is expected to remain isolated such
    that WW issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Goss/Grams.. 06/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41449589 41889602 42469568 42459521 41869341 41649196
    41309105 41089104 40619221 40719387 40869534 41449589



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