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ACUS11 KWNS 290702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290702
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...Southern...central...and eastern ND/northwest
MN/extreme north-central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239...

Valid 290702Z - 290900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239
continues.

SUMMARY...A predominant severe-weather threat for damaging winds
persists across central and eastern North Dakota until 4:30-5 AM
CDT, as fast-moving band of storms advance eastward overnight and
into northwest Minnesota by 5 AM. The southern extent of the line
of storms will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging winds
to the northern South Dakota counties, and possibly hail as elevated
storms possibly form in the wake of the squall lines.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed an accelerating, forward-propagating MCS moving across central ND at 45-55 kt.
Recent wind profiler observations per BIS NWS radar indicated a very
strong rear inflow jet of 90 kt located between 2-3 km agl.
Although objective analysis showed strong downstream surface-based
inhibition across the Upper Midwest, the accelerating MCS, strong
rear inflow jet, the presence of strengthening southeasterly inflow
winds, and very strong MUCAPE all suggest damaging winds will be a
severe threat despite the inhibition. The current forward speed of
the MCS suggests the severe-weather threat will exit WW 239 by
11-12Z, requiring a new severe thunderstorm watch into northeast and
possibly central MN, and northwest WI.

..Peters/Guyer.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 48069005 47469082 46479145 45979229 45829329 45879729
45659990 45560189 45970270 45990399 46450398 46790327
47100296 47560091 48940047 49039627 49049525 49379508
49089454 48759455 48619331 48469218 48219172 48159090
48069005



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