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ACUS11 KWNS 152338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152338
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152338Z - 160115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are expected this evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed between Gillette and
Casper. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km shear around 55 knots
via the 23Z RIW VWP will support supercell storm mode. A well-mixed
sub-cloud layer and very steep mid-level lapse rates will support
both damaging winds and large hail for the next few hours. Surface
dewpoints have mixed out into the low 40s in northeast Wyoming which
has led to MLCAPE less than 250 J/kg. This may limit the longevity
of these supercells as they move northeast into this airmass. The
primary limiting factors for watch issuance is the limited storm
coverage (2 to 3 stronger storms) and limited longevity of the
storms this evening.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43410651 44500648 44900609 44900560 44890514 44910462
44890429 44900413 44790395 44370390 43950388 43590391
43230393 42980400 42780422 42610456 42560522 42620577
42960626 43410651



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